RALEIGH — Campbell University’s Lundy-Fetterman School of Business Jan. 2 hosted a panel of leaders from across North Carolina to discuss the state of the economy and where it’s headed in 2025.
The event was held at Campbell Law School.
The “2025 Economic Forecast Roundtable” was co-hosted with Business North Carolina magazine and moderated by the magazine’s Publisher Ben Kinney. It’s at least the sixth year the publication has partnered with the business school to kick off the new year, said Dean Kevin O’Mara.
“The event went off very well,” he said. “I estimate we had well over 100 people attend. The February issue of Business N.C. will feature an article on the roundtable.”
Dr. Michael Seibert, director of the business school’s Graduate and External Programs, helped organize the event, which had its largest turnout yet, O’Mara added.
Lundy Chair of Free Enterprise and Associate Professor of Economics Mark Steckbeck started the discussion with his review of 2024, the impact of Hurricane Helene on the western half of the state and thoughts on the coming year.
“Things are starting to get back to normal in Western North Carolina and will continue to improve in the mountains as they receive more funds from the federal government,” he said.
Steckbeck predicted a 2.5 percent range of growth in the economy and unemployment staying roughly the same in the new year despite inflation remaining high. “I’m guessing the Fed is not going to change interest rates in January … but I see the economy doing well in 2025,” he added.
As the nation prepares for President-elect Trump to take office, Steckbeck warned that his proposed tariffs would create a different issue. “I don’t think we will see President Trump’s prediction of 25 percent tariffs on Mexico and Canada or 35 percent tariffs on China,” he continued. “We (North Carolina) are the 14th largest exporter in the nation, and the countries we primarily export to are Mexico, Canada and China.”
N.C. Sen. Jim Burgin, R-District 12, which serves Harnett, Lee and Sampson counties, told the group he is optimistic heading into the new year. “I just want us to be the best,” he explained. “My biggest concern for the state is child care. I am proposing we start school at 3 years old, send junior and seniors to community colleges and change schools statewide to year-round schools. We have to compete with the world.”
Burgin said AI is also a big concern moving forward.
“I am introducing legislation that if AI is used, they have to disclose it,” he said. “This technology is exciting, but people need to know it is being used, especially if it is being used in areas such as healthcare.”
Lee Hodge, a business and economic development attorney at Ward and Smith P.A. said most of his clients had a good 2024 though things across the board slowed down due to inflation.
“North Carolina continues to be a great place to do business,” Hodge said. “Overall, 2025 will be a very good year. The regulatory climate could be better, but the tax climate is good and getting better. But we have a big question at the federal level with the 2017 Trump tax cuts set to end.”
Byron Hicks is assistant vice chancellor and director of the state’s Small Business and Technology Development Center, an extension of the University of North Carolina System. He said a lot of small businesses have more debt than they can comfortably carry, which continues to be a challenge.
“But I still think it is a great time to start a business and I am cautiously optimistic for 2025,” he added. “There are non-traditional funding opportunities out there for our clients who used to get traditional bank loans. There are a bunch of other ways to fund this growth for small businesses and N.C. has a lot of opportunities.”
N.C. State University’s Dr. Phil Mintz, executive director of NCSU’s Industry Expansion Solutions (IES) and director of the North Carolina Manufacturing Extension Partnership, added there are so many products that need to be purchased that have never been made in the U.S.
“Using tariffs to lower prices isn’t going to work,” he said. “One of the things we are challenged with is productivity. You have to have the workforce and the technology. Businesses don’t want to have to borrow to get these things. The best performing companies have a better plan for their workforce, such as working with community colleges.”
Aubie Knight, who rounded out the panel, is the chief executive officer of the Independent Insurance Agents of North Carolina. He said insurance is like a lot of other businesses — “We do well when the economy is doing well.”
In recent years, however, auto claim inflation has been more severe, and the insurance industry is spending a lot of time looking at the increase and severity of storms. That includes the back-to-back destruction Hurricanes Helene and Milton brought to the Southeast last year.
North Carolinians also are concerned about immigration, Burgin said.
“I think a lot of folks on construction sites are going to have to leave the country,” he explained. “I have clients who have lived here for 30 years and they don’t have a driver’s license. We have got to figure this out because if you get rid of the ‘bad guys,’ you won’t be able to get a plumber or a roofer.”
Stenbeck added that foreign-born people in the U.S. commit far fewer crimes on average than natives. His biggest concern is rising health care costs overall and government subsidies, while Mintz said he is worried about the future for electric vehicles.
“There has been a lot of investment in the future of electric vehicles,” Mintz added. “If something happens policy wise, that could be an area of my concern.”